Bitcoin Rallying On Monday
Bitcoin is on watch this week as the futures market opens in the green, suggesting some optimism ahead of a bumper central bank week. BTC has been unable to capitalise on the latest Fed rate cut with some uncertainty over near-term rate expectations weighing on sentiment here. This week, traders will be watching incoming NFP data tomorrow which be highly important for determining risk sentiment through the end of the year.
US Jobs Data On Watch
If we see fresh weakness in the data (as expected), even more so if we get a downside surprise, this should bolster Q1 Fed easing expectations allowing crypto to recover higher as risk sentiment improves. Alongside that data, traders will be monitoring incoming Fed commentary this week (starting with Fed’s Williams later today). Any dovish comments should further bolster risk appetite helping lift BTC. However, if tomorrow’s data surprises to the upside, this could be heavily bearish for BTC as traders scale back Q1 easing expectations.
G10 Central Bank Meetings
Also on watch this week will be rates meetings from the BOE, ECB and BOJ. Aside from the BOE, expectations are skewed to the hawkish side with the risks of a fresh rate hike from the BOJ and some hawkish signalling from the ECB. If seen, this could be very unsettling for global risk sentiment, again weighing on crypto as traders look ahead to the prospect of a shift back towards tightening n some economic early next year.
Technical Views
BTC
For now, BTC remains in a choppy corrective structure which can be viewed as a bear flag, situated at the foot of the sell off from YTD highs. In this context, risks are skewed towards a break lower and a fresh plunge ahead of year end unless we see a near-term breakout above the December highs to encourage further buying through the $100k level and towards the big $108,855 level.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.