Institutional FX Insights: JPMorgan Trading Desk Views 10/12/25
EUR: Markets await payroll data next week, with mixed signals from JOLTS and rising yields. USDJPY longs squared yesterday, with plans to rebuy on dips pre-BOJ. Positions include short USDZAR, EURSEK, EURPLN, and long USDCAD. Euro remains range-bound; potential to fade a dollar rally near 1.15 if payrolls and PMIs are strong. Considering EURGBP longs into January, aiming for an interim dip to 0.86.
GBP: Focus on FOMC tonight, expecting a hawkish cut post-JOLTS. UK MPC remains divided on monetary policy's restrictiveness. GBP shorts seem ill-advised with limited HF position reduction. Resistance at 0.8750 in EURGBP; cable resistance at 1.33640, support at 1.3265/75.
JPY: USDJPY rallied to 157.10/20 resistance post-JOLTS. Squared longs ahead of FOMC, looking to reinstate after. NFP Tuesday poses the bigger risk. SHFs continue strong JPY selling; 158.885 January highs in view, with support at 155.65/75 and 153.00/30.
CHF: Quiet session as G10 banks lean hawkish into 2026. Bullish on EURCHF, preferring dips to 0.92 for longs. Systematics paused CHF selling, partially absorbed by RM demand.
AUD/NZD: Bullock’s hawkish tone supports AUD alongside strong copper prices. Frustration over AUD’s inability to break 0.6600 persists despite commodity correlations. Long AUDCAD amid event risks from BoC, domestic employment, and FOMC. USD sentiment hinges on Powell’s tone; DOTS may diverge.
CAD: BoC expected to hold rates at 2.25%. Labour resilience supports this stance. Focus remains on FOMC and Powell’s tone. Running small USDCAD long against EM FX longs; RM accounts showed demand for USDCAD yesterday.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!