US Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities | 5 May 2025 |

Below is a consolidated recap of various Goldman Sachs (GS) positioning metrics.

Summary:

  1. CTA Corner:

    • Estimated $51bn of systematic macro global equity buying over the past week, driven by CTA flows.

    • Expect $57bn for the upcoming week leading into Friday, with an upward adjustment likely due to Friday’s positive price action. Projections remain fluid as prices fluctuate.

  2. GS PB Performance:

    • GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by +0.84% from 4/25 to 5/1, compared to MSCI World TR at +1.91%. This was primarily driven by beta (+0.82%), while alpha remained flat.

    • GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate rose by +0.88% in the same period, with alpha contributing +0.80% (mainly from short-side gains) and beta adding +0.08%.

  3. Buybacks:

    • Approximately 75% of buybacks are currently in the open period, with this figure expected to rise to ~85% by the end of the week.

    • CTA Corner Details:

  4. CTA Flows (1-Week Outlook):

    • Flat tape: Buyers $45.54B ($13.43B into the US).

    • Up tape: Buyers $51.07B ($18.94B into the US).

    • Down tape: Buyers $28.31B ($7.76B into the US).

  5. CTA Flows (1-Month Outlook):

    • Flat tape: Buyers $43.81B ($18.35B into the US).

    • Up tape: Buyers $79.17B ($37.34B into the US).

    • Down tape: Sellers $28.23B ($1.11B into the US).

Key Pivot Levels for SPX:

  • Short-term: 5565

  • Medium-term: 5745

  • Long-term: 5489