Main driver: JPY “rate checks” and signaling risk around potential intervention (possibly coordinated Japan/US) is the dominant theme; spillover is broad USD weakness.

• USD bias: Staying short USD, framed as an “enduring” structural story driven by:

  • repeated pension-fund headlines (latest: ABP reducing Treasury holdings)

  • the likely but under-discussed follow-on: increased FX hedging if they keep US equity exposure

  • plus event risk: possible US government shutdown amplifying USD downside sensitivity

• AUD: USD weakness is helping AUDUSD longs; also Trump’s “100% tariff threat” on Canada supports AUDCAD higher (CAD headline risk into USMCA). Tactical note: AUD momentum overbought, but bias is to add on pullbacks. Key event: Australia Q4 CPI this week (RBA focus is inflation; domestic economy seen as robust).

• NZD: Still constructive but “to a lesser extent” than AUD; overbought as well. NZ inflation didn’t move NZD much last week because the market focus is NZ growth, not just inflation; still prefers short USD vs NZD but with lower conviction than AUD.

• EUR: EURUSD supported by general USD weakness from USDJPY move; “buy dips” in EUR is presented as logical. Contradicting micro-signal: franchise flow has seen EURUSD selling since the open (near-term headwind / positioning/flow caveat).

• GBP: UK politics is noisy (Burnham episode; leadership-challenge rumblings). Not an immediate “sell GBP” signal, but gilt sensitivity last week is a reminder of political risk into May. Counterweight: strong PMIs and GBP screens well on carry/risk metrics; modest tracking-segment GBP buying Friday. They’re sidelines for now.

  • Levels: EURGBP 0.8647 (200d) and 0.8700.

  • Cable: broke 1.3530/50 resistance; next major zone 1.3750/1.3800 (4-year highs area).

• JPY (big pivot): She flips to short USDJPY on intervention-signaling + technicals.

  • Belief: no actual official USDJPY selling yet (BoJ balance sheet data consistent); rate checks are “temporary dislocations,” but signaling is powerful in a short-JPY market (esp SHFs).

  • Added hypothesis: we’re in the “zone” for GPIF reallocation (last quarter before FY-end decision); coordinated incentives for MoF/UST to avoid more JGB vol and further JPY weakness; theory supported by Korea NPS reallocation chatter.

  • Technicals/levels:

    • Close below cloud bottom / 100d at 153.64–153.65 = bearish USDJPY signal (historically last similar break corresponded with much lower levels).

    • Friday closed below cloud top at 156.10, now seen as resistance.

• CHF: CHF strength “led by yen”; USDCHF breaks below 0.78; EURCHF traded down to 0.9190 despite better German PMIs. View: coordinated intervention narrative caps USDCHF rallies. Positioning: reluctant to be long CHF at these levels with risk ok and EURCHF near lows; prefers USD shorts elsewhere.

  • SNB minimum reserve requirement cut 16.5 → 15 seen as routine / little FX impact.

• CAD: CAD benefited from USD selloff Friday; she still thinks CAD underperforms on crosses, but she reduced CAD position and reallocated into other USD shorts. Focus this week: BoC; expects hold given disinflation and subdued business sentiment.

  • Flow shift: Friday CAD demand came from systematic accounts (not RM, which had been the prior recurring theme).

• SEK/NOK: NOK outperformed Friday (higher energy); SEK weaker then, but both stronger overnight on broad USD weakness from yen-intervention implications. Momentum overbought risk = potential retracement; pullbacks viewed as “healthy corrections” to add.

  • Riksbank this week (Thu): hold expected; watch for discomfort about low inflation / SEK strength vs their forecasts (interim meeting, no new forecasts).

  • Add levels: add to EURSEK shorts on 10.65/10.70; add on EURNOK 11.70.