Daily Market Outlook, April 9, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Stocks retreated while oil prices stubbornly climbed as the initial euphoria surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire rapidly dissipated. Tehran's announcement of several critical violations in the agreement underscored the persistent uncertainty gripping global markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index tumbled 0.9% following remarks from Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who confirmed that three sections of the ceasefire resolution had already been breached. Within the index, declining stocks outnumbered gainers by a two-to-one margin. Markets have partially retraced the extreme moves triggered by news of the US-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude is now trading around $97/bbl, up from Wednesday’s low of $90.40/bbl but still well below Tuesday’s pre-ceasefire peak of $111.80/bbl. This reversal has also pushed US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index off yesterday’s lows, while Asian equities have turned lower again. In short, markets are once again pricing the fragility of the temporary truce, particularly after President Trump’s social media post signalled that US military resources would remain in the region. Ongoing uncertainty around the security of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz is adding to the tension. With today’s US economic releases—delayed February PCE and the final estimate of Q4 GDP—feeling stale, market direction remains heavily driven by headlines out of the Middle East. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting, released overnight, reinforced two key themes: elevated uncertainty and a growing divergence in risks, with downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation. Unsurprisingly, one of the main takeaways was the Fed’s emphasis on remaining “nimble” in upcoming meetings if conditions warrant. While many participants still viewed further rate cuts as appropriate, some argued that describing policy risks as "two-sided" reflected the possibility that the next move in rates could be either up or down. In that respect, the minutes carried a slightly more hawkish tone than Chair Powell’s press conference following the mid-March meeting. Even so, the market-implied path for Fed funds remains broadly unchanged through most of the rest of 2026.

The oil price itself is not the only signal of supply fears; the Brent-WTI spread also reflects market stress. Under normal conditions, Brent trades at a premium to WTI because it is seaborne, faces fewer inland transport constraints, and is more exposed to global demand, even though WTI is the higher-quality crude. During the latest Middle East conflict, however, that relationship reversed, with WTI trading above Brent. Contract roll timing and differing market conventions can distort front-month Brent-WTI spreads, rendering them a noisy indicator. Recent roll activity briefly exaggerated the move, which may have made the inversion look purely technical. But the shift was not driven only by mechanics. A synthetic 33-day constant-maturity transatlantic spread also turned negative, confirming the inversion. Since January 2020, this measure has fallen below zero only five times, with four of those instances occurring over the past week. This suggests the move reflects genuine concern over Brent-linked physical supply, likely tied to war-related disruption, which has increased the value of secure WTI delivery. A decline in oil prices could signal confidence that supply will normalise. if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Another key sign would be the Brent-WTI spread returning to its usual structure, with Brent once again trading above WTI.

Overnight Headlines

• US Inflation In Focus As Energy Shock Clouds Price Growth Outlook

• Trump Weighs Punishing NATO Countries Over Lack Of Iran War Support

• Trump Sending VP, Witkoff, Kushner To Pakistan For Ceasefire Talks

• Oil Rises After Biggest Drop Since 2020 As Hormuz Stays Blocked

• Iran’s Hormuz ‘Toll Booth’ Set To Hardwire Higher Energy Prices

• UK RICS: Homebuyer Demand Slumps As Borrowing Costs Spiral

• Fed Minutes Show Growing Openness To Rate Hikes At March Meeting

• Fed Rate Cut Bets Revived, A Bit, By Iran War Ceasefire

• RBNZ To ‘Act Decisively’ If Core Inflation Picks Up, Breman Says

• BoJ Is Likely To Raise Interest Rate In April, Ex-Official Says

• Russia Warns Of Bilateral Relations With Japan At All-Time Low

• North Korea Conducted Test Of Electromagnetic Weapon System

• US Futures Waver As Iran Says Ceasefire Violated

• Anthropic Fails For Now To Halt US Label As A Supply-Chain Risk

• Australian Pensions Suffer Worst Month Since 2022 On Iran War

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EURUSD: 1.1500 (€2.5bn), 1.1525 (€550m), 1.1540 (€601m), 1.1550 (€899m), 1.1560 (€1.0bn), 1.1575 (€905m), 1.1590 (€677m), 1.1600 (€1.8bn), 1.1600-10 (€3.8bn), 1.1635 (€1.1bn), 1.1650 (€805m), 1.1660 (€659m), 1.1680 (€815m), 1.1725 (€628m), 1.1770 (€900m)

• USDJPY: 158.00 ($657m), 161.00 ($1.3bn)

• GBPUSD: 1.3325 (£538m), 1.3340 (£700m)

• EURGBP: 0.7800 ($1.1bn)

• AUDUSD: 0.6980 (A$584m), 0.7050 (A$1.6bn), 0.7155 (A$704m), 0.7175 (A$1.0bn)

• EURGBP/other euro cross: 0.8800 (€1.0bn)

CFTC Positions as of April 3, 2026: 

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 138,404 contracts to 1,586,840

• Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 142,176 contracts to 784,063

• Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 855 contracts to 1,637,324

• Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 11,058 contracts to 268,129

• Speculators switch CBOT US Treasury bonds futures to a net short position of 31,633 contracts (vs. 6,570 net longs a week ago)

• Bitcoin net long position is 2,253 contracts

• Swiss franc posts net short position of -29,871 contracts

• British pound net short position is -52,665 contracts

• Euro net long position is 507 contracts

• Japanese yen net short position is -72,872 contracts

• Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 113,496 contracts to 215,932

• Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 39,730 contracts to 912,682.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 6700 Target 6900

• Below 6600 Target 6400

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.16 Target 1.1750

• Below 1.15 Target 1.1350

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.35 Target 1.3650

• Below 1.3485 Target 1.3250

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 159 Target 161.50

• Below 157 Target 156

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 4550 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 79.5k Target 81.5k

• Below 78k Target 53k